The public hasn’t learned that businesses don’t pay taxes: only people do. They’re confused, and this makes an adviser’s job all the harder. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you’re going to be wrong; you just don’t know when and in which direction! Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to expand. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
If we’re going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it’s not that easy. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
If a proposal doesn’t prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model. Edgar Fiedler Read Quote
